Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
